MicrobetBTCTHE SHORT-HORIZON BITCOIN DESK
Connecting

MARKET WATCH · NO TRADES PLACED

HOLD · Wait for data

Wait while we check the live price and the evidence for your selected interval.

How far ahead are you trading?

Choose 5 minutes to 1 hour. The chart, candle-close estimate and market watch follow your selection.

POLYMARKET · LIVE ORDER BOOK

Polymarket live contract prices

Waiting for market connection

Contract prices in cents per $1 payout; BTC prices below in USD/USDT.

Looking for the selected live contract

Open Polymarket ↗
Market start and end times appear after connection.
UP contract
BEST BID
iThe highest open bid to buy the UP contract. Contract prices are quoted in cents per $1 payout. A bid is not an executed trade or a probability guaranteed by this tracker.
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BEST ASK
iThe lowest open asking price to sell the UP contract. This is a live book quote in cents per $1 payout; size, fees and changing prices can affect execution.
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DOWN contract
BEST BID
iThe highest open bid to buy the DOWN contract. Contract prices are quoted in cents per $1 payout. This quote is separate from the BTC spot price.
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BEST ASK
iThe lowest open asking price to sell the DOWN contract. This is a live book quote in cents per $1 payout, not a guaranteed execution price or prediction.
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CONTRACT SPREAD—
BOOK UPDATE AGE—
EXACT SETTLEMENT REFERENCEUnconnected

Resolution rules load from the selected contract. Exchange prices below do not substitute for its settlement source.

Bitcoin BTC / USD

LIVE EXECUTED BTC PRICE

iThe latest executed trade reported by the selected exchange. This is an actual observed price, not an estimated closing price. Different exchanges may have slightly different prices.
WAITING FOR FEED
$—
Coinbase · BTC-USD
Last exchange trade · awaiting feed
Awaiting first execution
CANDLE CLOSES IN
iTime until the selected UTC candle ends. It is separate from a forecast target time. Your device clock, background tabs and network delays can affect timing.
15m
—:—.———
Waiting for current interval—%
Countdown uses this device’s clock.
INDEPENDENT PRICE CHECKWaiting for Kraken BTC-USD
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Compare live exchange prices

iEach venue has its own real order flow and last executed trade. Coinbase and Kraken quote USD; Binance quotes USDT, which is a different asset. Missing or stale feeds remain labeled and are not filled with estimates.
Coinbase BTC / USD—Waiting for feed
Kraken BTC / USD—Waiting for feed
Binance BTC / USDT—Waiting for feed
Actual Bitcoin price
iThe line chart uses real exchange prices: historical completed minute closes plus the latest received trades. Candles show actual open, high, low and close values. Color is a price comparison, not a guaranteed next move.
· exchange history + live trades
Loading exchange price history
Loading real Bitcoin pricesHistory comes from the exchange. Latest prices come from executed trades.
Actual exchange pricesPrices are observed, never generated

Historical exchange prices + live trades; no generated prices.

OPEN
iThe first observed trade price inside the selected UTC candle. A startup candle may be partial.
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HIGH
iThe highest price observed inside the selected UTC candle; it is not a predicted future high.
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LOW
iThe lowest price observed inside the selected UTC candle; it is not a predicted future low.
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LATEST TRADE IN CANDLE
iThe latest received execution price in this candle. The final close is only known after the candle ends.
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Awaiting dataA new connection observes only trades received from that point onward.

PRICE NOW / ESTIMATED CLOSE / ACTUAL CLOSE

Current candle · live closing estimate

Waiting for fresh exchange data
ACTUAL LIVE BTC PRICE
iThe latest actual trade on the selected exchange. This is the current observed price used as the reference for the closing estimate.
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Latest executed exchange trade.

ESTIMATED FINAL CLOSEESTIMATE
iA numeric estimate of the selected candle’s final exchange price. It updates as new trades arrive. If no trained return model improves on the no-change comparison, the estimate can equal the live price. This is not a proven trading advantage.
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Waiting for a live price reference

LAST ACTUAL CLOSED CANDLE
iThe observed final price for the previous completed candle, with its source and coverage shown below. It is not a forecast and is not the Polymarket settlement value.
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A final close appears when the candle has ended.

The target candle closing time appears here.
UNCERTAINTY RANGECollecting observed returns

Loading the estimate method. A numeric estimate is separate from evidence of a profitable trade.

The first estimate and the actual completed close will be compared after the interval ends.

5 MIN CANDLE—
10 MIN CANDLE—
15 MIN CANDLE—
30 MIN CANDLE—
1 HOUR CANDLE—
Direction-model details · separate from Polymarket odds
ESTIMATEFUTURE DIRECTION · EXCHANGE SPOT

Loading evidence-based forecast

The desk is loading historical exchange data and checking the live feed. A forecast looks ahead from its issue time; it is separate from the actual price above.

Forecast issue and target times appear here.
TRADE READWAIT · No verified forecast yet
  • Loading the evidence behind the forecast.
MODEL PROBABILITY
iAn estimate of a future up or down move for the selected horizon. It is not a Bitcoin price. A model without demonstrated validation evidence produces a WAIT read.
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Chance of moving above the price when this forecast was issued. It is not the probability of a Polymarket contract winning.

Checking forecast performance on held-out data.

Forecast is exchange spot direction. Polymarket uses its own settlement rules; without a demonstrated executable edge, the read stays HOLD.

Set your price alerts

Saved on this device

Alert me if Bitcoin drops to this price:

No buy-floor alert saved.

Alert me if Bitcoin drops to this price:

No safety-net alert saved.

Price alerts only. No buy or stop-loss order is placed.

Rolling direction estimates · different from candle closing prices

What happens next?

From the issued completed minute · separate target times
Next 5 minutes ESTIMATE
Loading—Awaiting issue and target times
Next 10 minutes ESTIMATE
Loading—Awaiting issue and target times
Next 15 minutes ESTIMATE
Loading—Awaiting issue and target times
Next 30 minutes ESTIMATE
Loading—Awaiting issue and target times
Next 1 hour ESTIMATE
Loading—Awaiting issue and target times
Live pressure & momentum (observations)What is happening now · these measurements are not forecasts
OBSERVED CONDITIONS 15-minute view

Collecting current conditions

These readings describe received trades and recent price movement. The future-direction forecast appears above.

CURRENT CONDITIONSWaiting for live observations.
  • Current buying pressure can change before a future interval ends.
Waiting for dataCollecting observations
Price directionWaitingRelative to the candle open
Short-term momentumWaitingRecent observed price movement
Price vs. averageWaitingRelative to the candle’s average execution price
Buying vs. sellingWaitingWho is initiating recent trades

Observed change across candles

Observed move from each candle’s open
Does the forecast have an edge?Held-out directional accuracy, baseline comparison and probability error
HorizonSamplesHit rateBaselineBrier scoreStatus
Loading held-out validation. No performance claim until results are available.

Hit rate is the fraction of correct directions. The baseline is a simple comparison forecast; the Brier score measures probability error, where lower is better. A good historical result can still fail on the next trade.

Automatic learning & strategy checksLearning from real trades and depth while this page is open

The live learner uses executed buy/sell pressure, momentum, spread, order-book imbalance and microprice. It freezes each forecast, checks the actual outcome 5–60 minutes later, scores the forecast before learning that result, and updates a regularized logistic model automatically.

HorizonReal training outcomesSeparate evaluationCorrect directionLatest online estimateStatus

Training pauses when this page closes. Learning is saved in this browser; interrupted forecasts are not scored as continuous observations.

A challenger replaces the historical forecast only after enough separate, nonoverlapping evaluation calls beat the comparison forecast across multiple time blocks and fresh live checks agree. This tests direction, not executable profit. Research references: DeepLOB, TLOB and crypto microstructure research. These papers inform the approach; their neural networks and reported accuracy are not installed or claimed here.

Market activity & trade historyBuying pressure, order book, raw trades and completed candles

Candle history

Locally constructed · 15-minute intervals

IntervalOpenHighLowCloseVolume BTCDelta BTCCoverage
Completed candles will appear after an interval closes.
Inspect live indicator valuesObserved price and flow measurements · not predicted outcomes
AVERAGE EXECUTION PRICE · VWAP
iThe average received trade price weighted by trade size in the selected candle.
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Trade-size-weighted price in this candle.

ONE-MINUTE MOMENTUM
iObserved price movement over the recent minute. Momentum can reverse.
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Price change over the recent minute.

RECENT BUY SHARE
iThe fraction of recent received volume initiated by market buyers, not the number of people buying.
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Share of recent volume initiated by buyers.

MOMENTUM INDEX · RSI 14
iA 0–100 summary of recent price momentum. It describes observed movement, not a win probability.
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A 0–100 measure of recent price momentum.

FAST TREND · EMA 9
iA recent-price moving average that responds faster than the slower trend measure.
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A moving average that responds faster.

SLOW TREND · EMA 21
iA slower moving average of recently observed prices. It is a reference, not a predicted price.
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A slower reference for trend alignment.

POSITION IN CANDLE RANGE
iWhere the latest trade sits between the observed low and high of the selected candle.
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Where the current price sits inside the observed high/low range.

EMA 9/21 and RSI 14 use completed 5-second bars and locally observed data. Direction rules have not been validated as a profitable strategy; signal agreement is not a win probability.

Forecast call logIssue time, reference price, target and eventual result
HorizonIssuedReference priceTargetUpDownActionOutcome
Forecasts will be recorded as they are issued. Outcomes stay pending until their targets.

THE REASON BEHIND THE READ

Why this signal?

Waiting for a live update
  1. Checking real prices, recent trades and forecast evidence before giving a trading read.

The signal can change as new data arrives. A watch zone or upward read is not an instruction to buy and does not guarantee the next price move.

Feed diagnostics
Source age—
Receive age—
Trades observed0
Reconnects0
Duplicates ignored0
How to read this desk

Actual price vs. forecast

The large live price is the last executed trade reported by the selected exchange. It is not an estimated closing price. The chart uses actual exchange candles and received executions. Forecasts are separately labeled estimates, with issue and target times.

Order flow, clearly defined

Market buys are buyer-initiated trades; market sells are seller-initiated trades. CVD is buy BTC minus sell BTC. Net aggressor flow is buy quote turnover minus sell quote turnover. Every trade has both a buyer and a seller.

Coverage and timing

Startup candles are partial. Disconnects create gaps; those intervals remain marked. The closing alert sounds 10 seconds before the selected interval ends when sound is enabled. The countdown follows your device’s clock. Background tabs, clock error, and network delays can affect updates and alert timing.

Polymarket settlement is separate

Exchange prices are not Polymarket’s Chainlink TWAP. An exchange candle alone cannot establish a market’s settlement result or guarantee a timing advantage. Check the specific market’s rules before acting.