MicrobetBTCLIVE BITCOIN · ANALYSIS WORKSPACE v12
Live odds Connecting Coinbase · BTC/USD

How far ahead are you trading?

Predict looks this far ahead from now. Candle estimates use the next UTC close. Set chart bars separately below.

Bitcoin BTC / USD

LIVE EXECUTED BTC PRICE

iThe latest executed Bitcoin trade reported by Coinbase. This is an actual observed price, not an estimated closing price. Other sources can report different prices.
WAITING FOR FEED
$—
Coinbase · BTC-USD
Last exchange trade · awaiting feed
Awaiting first execution
CANDLE CLOSES IN
iTime until the selected UTC candle ends. It is separate from a forecast target time. Your device clock, background tabs and network delays can affect timing.
15m
—:—.———
Waiting for current interval—%
Countdown uses this device’s clock.
INDEPENDENT PRICE CHECKWaiting for Kraken BTC-USD
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Compare live Bitcoin prices

iCoinbase and Kraken show their latest executed BTC/USD trades. Polymarket shows the BTC reference supplied by its data feed, with the reference type identified. This is separate from UP/DOWN share prices in cents. Missing or stale values remain labeled.
Coinbase BTC / USD—Waiting for feed
Kraken BTC / USD—Waiting for feed
Polymarket BTC / USD reference—Waiting for reference feedBTC reference, separate from contract odds.

Trading activity

iExecuted BTC volume, separated by which side initiated each trade. Buyer-initiated means a market buyer hit a seller’s ask; seller-initiated means a market seller hit a buyer’s bid. Every trade has both a buyer and a seller. This is not new money entering Bitcoin or a probability of the next move.

ACTUAL COINBASE TRADES

Waiting for trades

Who is pushing harder?

Last 60 seconds · BTC volume
Buyers initiating—
Sellers initiating—

Buy and sell pressure appears as real Coinbase trades arrive.

Selected candle · received trades

TOTAL BTC TRADED
iThe total BTC size of trades received for the selected candle. A new connection has only partial coverage; this is not a whole-exchange volume total when trades were missed.
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BUY MINUS SELL · CVD
iBuyer-initiated BTC volume minus seller-initiated BTC volume received in the selected candle. A positive result means more aggressive buying; a negative result means more aggressive selling. It does not guarantee the price direction.
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Checking recent completed candle volume.

How does trading activity relate to the forecast?

The forecast uses completed candle volume with price movement, volatility and candle shape. The live buyer/seller split above describes executed trades received right now; it is separate from the purple forecast and its optional uncertainty shading.

LIVE CHART · YOUR ANALYSIS

Price action workspace
iActual exchange prices and UTC times anchor the chart. The Patterns tool marks shapes found in completed candles; manual drawings are your own analysis. The purple Predict path is a separate model estimate, not a pattern guarantee.

Loading exchange price history
Loading real Bitcoin pricesHistory comes from the exchange. Latest prices come from executed trades.
Move across the chart to inspect price and UTC time.
Actual exchange pricesPrices are observed, never generated

Historical exchange prices + live trades; no generated prices.

Waiting for exchange history.Choose a tool, then click its anchors. Drag to pan. Scroll to zoom. Esc cancels; Delete removes a selected drawing.

Wave scan is off. Enable it to inspect confirmed price pivots.

AUTO PATTERNSScanning completed chart bars…

Automatic pattern markers highlight observed chart shapes; a forming shape can fail. Fibonacci, Gann and hand-drawn waves remain your analysis. The purple Predict path is a separate model estimate; annotations do not change it.

OPEN
iThe first observed trade price inside the selected UTC candle. A startup candle may be partial.
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HIGH
iThe highest price observed inside the selected UTC candle; it is not a predicted future high.
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LOW
iThe lowest price observed inside the selected UTC candle; it is not a predicted future low.
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LATEST TRADE IN CANDLE
iThe latest received execution price in this candle. The final close is only known after the candle ends.
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Awaiting dataA new connection observes only trades received from that point onward.

OBSERVED NOW / MODEL FORECAST / COMPLETED CANDLE

Current candle · closing forecast

Waiting for fresh exchange data
ACTUAL LIVE BTC PRICE
iThe latest actual trade on Coinbase. This is the current observed price used as the reference for the closing estimate.
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Latest executed Coinbase trade.

CANDLE CLOSE FORECASTESTIMATE
iA model estimate of Coinbase's price at the selected candle's UTC closing time. The method is labeled below. It is separate from the current trade price and from the Polymarket settlement result.
Waiting for model—

Waiting for a model forecast

LAST ACTUAL CLOSED CANDLE
iThe observed final price for the previous completed candle, with its source and coverage shown below. It is not a forecast and is not the Polymarket settlement value.
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A final close appears when the candle has ended.

The target candle closing time appears here.
UNCERTAINTY RANGECollecting observed returns

Loading the forecast method. A forecast can predict little movement; its model result and comparison are labeled explicitly.

The first estimate and the actual completed close will be compared after the interval ends.

5 MIN CANDLE—
10 MIN CANDLE—
15 MIN CANDLE—
30 MIN CANDLE—
1 HOUR CANDLE—

POLYMARKET · LIVE ORDER BOOK

Polymarket live contract prices

Waiting for market connection

UP/DOWN shares in cents per $1 payout. Compare Bitcoin prices in USD above.

Looking for the selected live contract

Open Polymarket ↗
Market start and end times appear after connection.
UP contract
BEST BID
iThe highest open bid to buy the UP contract. Contract prices are quoted in cents per $1 payout. A bid is not an executed trade or a probability guaranteed by this tracker.
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BEST ASK
iThe lowest open asking price to sell the UP contract. This is a live book quote in cents per $1 payout; size, fees and changing prices can affect execution.
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DOWN contract
BEST BID
iThe highest open bid to buy the DOWN contract. Contract prices are quoted in cents per $1 payout. This quote is separate from the BTC spot price.
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BEST ASK
iThe lowest open asking price to sell the DOWN contract. This is a live book quote in cents per $1 payout, not a guaranteed execution price or prediction.
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CONTRACT SPREAD—
BOOK UPDATE AGE—
POLYMARKET BTC REFERENCE · 60s TWAPUnconnected

The selected contract’s rules determine settlement. This live 60-second BTC reference is separate from the final contract result.

Direction-model details · separate from Polymarket odds
ESTIMATEFUTURE DIRECTION · EXCHANGE SPOT

Loading evidence-based forecast

The desk is loading historical exchange data and checking the live feed. A forecast looks ahead from its issue time; it is separate from the actual price above.

Forecast issue and target times appear here.
TRADE READWAIT · No verified forecast yet
  • Loading the evidence behind the forecast.
MODEL PROBABILITY
iAn estimate of a future up or down move for the selected horizon. It is not a Bitcoin price. A model without demonstrated validation evidence produces a WAIT read.
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Chance of moving above the price when this forecast was issued. It is not the probability of a Polymarket contract winning.

Checking forecast performance on held-out data.

Forecast is exchange spot direction. Polymarket uses its own settlement rules; without a demonstrated executable edge, the read stays HOLD.

Set your price alerts

Saved on this device

Alert me if Bitcoin drops to this price:

No buy-floor alert saved.

Alert me if Bitcoin drops to this price:

No safety-net alert saved.

Price alerts only. No buy or stop-loss order is placed.

Rolling direction estimates · different from candle closing prices

What happens next?

From the issued completed minute · separate target times
Next 5 minutes ESTIMATE
Loading—Awaiting issue and target times
Next 10 minutes ESTIMATE
Loading—Awaiting issue and target times
Next 15 minutes ESTIMATE
Loading—Awaiting issue and target times
Next 30 minutes ESTIMATE
Loading—Awaiting issue and target times
Next 1 hour ESTIMATE
Loading—Awaiting issue and target times
Live pressure & momentum (observations)What is happening now · these measurements are not forecasts
OBSERVED CONDITIONS 15-minute view

Collecting current conditions

These readings describe received trades and recent price movement. The future-direction forecast appears above.

CURRENT CONDITIONSWaiting for live observations.
  • Current buying pressure can change before a future interval ends.
Waiting for dataCollecting observations
Price directionWaitingRelative to the candle open
Short-term momentumWaitingRecent observed price movement
Price vs. averageWaitingRelative to the candle’s average execution price
Buying vs. sellingWaitingWho is initiating recent trades

Observed change across candles

Observed move from each candle’s open
Does the forecast have an edge?Held-out directional accuracy, baseline comparison and probability error
HorizonSamplesHit rateBaselineBrier scoreStatus
Loading held-out validation. No performance claim until results are available.

Hit rate is the fraction of correct directions. The baseline is a simple comparison forecast; the Brier score measures probability error, where lower is better. A good historical result can still fail on the next trade.

Automatic learning & strategy checksLearning from real trades and depth while this page is open

The live learner uses executed buy/sell pressure, momentum, spread, order-book imbalance and microprice. It freezes each forecast, checks the actual outcome 5–60 minutes later, scores the forecast before learning that result, and updates a regularized logistic model automatically.

HorizonReal training outcomesSeparate evaluationCorrect directionLatest online estimateStatus

Training pauses when this page closes. Learning is saved in this browser; interrupted forecasts are not scored as continuous observations.

A challenger replaces the historical forecast only after enough separate, nonoverlapping evaluation calls beat the comparison forecast across multiple time blocks and fresh live checks agree. This tests direction, not executable profit. Research references: DeepLOB, TLOB and crypto microstructure research. These papers inform the approach; their neural networks and reported accuracy are not installed or claimed here.

Market activity & trade historyBuying pressure, order book, raw trades and completed candles

Candle history

Locally constructed · 15-minute intervals

IntervalOpenHighLowCloseVolume BTCDelta BTCCoverage
Completed candles will appear after an interval closes.
Inspect live indicator valuesObserved price and flow measurements · not predicted outcomes
AVERAGE EXECUTION PRICE · VWAP
iThe average received trade price weighted by trade size in the selected candle.
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Trade-size-weighted price in this candle.

ONE-MINUTE MOMENTUM
iObserved price movement over the recent minute. Momentum can reverse.
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Price change over the recent minute.

RECENT BUY SHARE
iThe fraction of recent received volume initiated by market buyers, not the number of people buying.
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Share of recent volume initiated by buyers.

MOMENTUM INDEX · RSI 14
iA 0–100 summary of recent price momentum. It describes observed movement, not a win probability.
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A 0–100 measure of recent price momentum.

FAST TREND · EMA 9
iA recent-price moving average that responds faster than the slower trend measure.
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A moving average that responds faster.

SLOW TREND · EMA 21
iA slower moving average of recently observed prices. It is a reference, not a predicted price.
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A slower reference for trend alignment.

POSITION IN CANDLE RANGE
iWhere the latest trade sits between the observed low and high of the selected candle.
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Where the current price sits inside the observed high/low range.

EMA 9/21 and RSI 14 use completed 5-second bars and locally observed data. Direction rules have not been validated as a profitable strategy; signal agreement is not a win probability.

Forecast call logIssue time, reference price, target and eventual result
HorizonIssuedReference priceTargetUpDownActionOutcome
Forecasts will be recorded as they are issued. Outcomes stay pending until their targets.

THE REASON BEHIND THE READ

Why this signal?

Waiting for a live update
  1. Checking real prices, recent trades and forecast evidence before giving a trading read.

The signal can change as new data arrives. A watch zone or upward read is not an instruction to buy and does not guarantee the next price move.

Feed diagnostics
Source age—
Receive age—
Trades observed0
Reconnects0
Duplicates ignored0
How to read this desk

Actual price vs. forecast

The large live price is the last executed trade reported by Coinbase. The chart uses actual Coinbase candles and received executions. Predict draws an estimated future path from now; the separate candle estimate targets the next UTC close. Each estimate has its own issue and target time.

Order flow, clearly defined

Market buys are buyer-initiated trades; market sells are seller-initiated trades. CVD is buy BTC minus sell BTC. Net aggressor flow is buy quote turnover minus sell quote turnover. Every trade has both a buyer and a seller.

Coverage and timing

Startup candles are partial. Disconnects create gaps; those intervals remain marked. The closing alert sounds 10 seconds before the selected interval ends when sound is enabled. The countdown follows your device’s clock. Background tabs, clock error, and network delays can affect updates and alert timing.

Polymarket settlement is separate

Exchange prices are not Polymarket’s Chainlink TWAP. An exchange candle alone cannot establish a market’s settlement result or guarantee a timing advantage. Check the specific market’s rules before acting.